The End of an Era: India rethinks role in post-Assad Syria

India and Syria share a long history of strong ties, both politically and culturally. Even during Syria’s civil war, India continued its diplomatic relationship and made significant investments in the country.

In 1957, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru stopped by in Damascus, the capital of Syria, while on his way to the United States. India and Syria had started diplomatic relations seven years earlier. To honour this friendship, a street in the historic Ummayad Square in Damascus was named ‘Jawaharlal Nehru Street’.

However, recent political shifts in Syria could influence India’s broader strategies in the Middle East. The removal of Bashar al-Assad by Islamist rebels in Syria could have an impact on India, as the two countries have shared a strong relationship built on historical, cultural and civilizational connections. This bond has grown stronger over the years, especially during Assad’s leadership.

A new political setup in Syria could bring changes that affect India’s relationship with the country. These shifts may also influence India’s position and plans in the broader Middle East region, as Syria plays an important role in the area’s politics.

On Monday (December 9), India said it was important to keep Syria united and protect its independence. India has also urged for a peaceful solution, led by the Syrian people that includes and respects everyone in the country. India and Syria have shared a strong and friendly relationship over the years. Since the two countries established diplomatic ties, they have frequently engaged in high-level meetings and exchanges.

India has criticised the violence caused by both the Syrian government led by Assad and the opposition rebels. This means India does not support either side in the conflict and has spoken out against the harm caused by both groups. India has stood by Syria on many global issues. This includes supporting Syria’s stance on the Golan Heights, a disputed region and backing Syria’s support for the Palestinian cause.

On the other hand, Syria, led by the Assad family—first Hafez al-Assad and later Bashar al-Assad—has always supported India on important issues, especially on Kashmir. While many Islamic countries sided with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, Syria was one of the few that backed India, often expressing support for India’s right to handle its own affairs. The secular approach of the Assad government matched India’s values, helping to build a strong and cooperative relationship between the two nations.

At the United Nations, India chose not to support sanctions against Syria. During the Covid pandemic, India also urged for these sanctions to be eased, saying they were causing harm to the people and creating humanitarian problems.

Since the civil war started in 2011, India has supported a peaceful solution to the conflict. It has encouraged resolving the issues through dialogue and a political process led by the Syrian people without using military force. Even in the worst times during the civil war, when many countries cut off ties with Syria and it was removed from the Arab League, India stayed connected with Syria. India kept its embassy open in Damascus and continued its relationship with the country.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India strengthened its relationship with Syria after the country rejoined the Arab League in 2023, following years of civil war. In July 2023, V Muraleedharan, who was the Minister of State for External Affairs at the time, made an important visit to Damascus to boost ties between the two nations.

How Assad’s Downfall Could Impact India

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the resulting instability could create problems for India’s political and economic interests in the region. One major concern is that a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has links to extremist ideologies and was once connected to the al-Qaeda, may take control of Syria. Additionally, there is a risk that the ISIS could regain strength, leading to further chaos and insecurity in the region. This would not only affect Syria, but could also disrupt the surrounding areas, making the situation even more challenging for such countries as India.

India has made two important investments in Syria’s oil industry. The first was in 2004, when India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) partnered with IPR International to explore oil and natural gas in Syria. The second investment was a joint effort by ONGC and China’s CNPC, where they bought a 37% share in a Canadian company that operates in Syria. These investments show India’s interest in Syria’s energy resources and its efforts to strengthen its presence in the region’s oil sector.

India has helped Syria’s development in many ways over the years. This includes providing a $240-million loan to build a power plant and investing in such areas as IT infrastructure and modernizing steel plants and the oil industry. India has also supported Syria by exporting such important goods as rice, medicines and textiles. India is planning to make a big investment in creating a trade route that connects India with the Gulf, passing through the Suez Canal and reaching Europe via the Mediterranean region. This route also involves Syria as one of the key locations.

Experts say that India’s close ties with Damascus could help it improve its relationships with other countries in the Middle East. This connection gives India a chance to build stronger partnerships and expand its influence across the region.

The opposition rebels in Syria are supported by Turkey and its President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is expected to play a bigger role as Syria’s political situation changes. Recently, Erdogan did not bring up the Kashmir issue at the UN for the first time. Many see this as a positive step towards improving relations between India and Turkey.

Syria’s political situation is currently unclear, with various rebel groups struggling to work together due to internal disagreements. India is keeping a close eye on these developments and may need to change its strategy to deal with the challenges of a changing Syria.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)