'Collapse is humanity's....': Elon Musk reacts to global population decline trends in India, China

Elon Musk recently raised alarms about a vital issue that he believes may be affecting the trajectory of humanity: declining population. By means of his platform on X (formerly Twitter), he amplified concerns by sharing a graph presenting a drastically changing picture of the demographics worldwide. The graph, first posted by Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, shows that dramatic population trends are expected to occur between 2018 and 2100 in countries like Nigeria, the United States, Indonesia, and Pakistan. To the post saying that population collapse was "humanity's greatest threat," Musk simply yet emphatically responded: "Yes." 

Musk's observation, however, alarms the public about the most crucial topic he believes would shape the human transition-a declining world population. On his X (Twitter) platform, Musk further amplified concerns and provided a graph that shows how demographics are dramatically changing around the world. This graph, which was shared first by Tesla Owners Silicon Valley, showed the dramatic expected population trends in Nigeria, the United States, Indonesia, and Pakistan between 2018 and 2100. Musk's incredulous approval of the post described population collapse as "the greatest threat to humanity," followed a short but emphatic "Yes."

While experts have long recognized the welfare of population decline, arguments live on regarding its pace and at-risk countries. Driving this are declining fertility rates, an aging population, and emigration. For example, in various nations, the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime has dipped below the two children per woman replacement threshold, with this figure reaching an astonishing low of 1.44 in England and Wales in 2023. Reports noted that globally, fertility rates have plummeted from 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half of that today.

According to one projection made in 2020, the future for India and China could not be more different. Their populations were each approximately 1.5 billion, with projections showing great declines on the horizon. India would lose about 400 million by 2100, leaving a population of just under 1.1 billion. In respect to China, the figure would be well more than 700 million, leaving this country as low as 731 million. In the meantime, Nigeria is expected to continue climbing, working towards that goal of a total of 790 million people. By this time, it will have overtaken China to become the world's second-most populous nation. 

The United States, despite falling fertility rates, is projected to maintain its population stability due to positive net migration, positioning it as the world’s fourth-largest country by 2100. Similar migration trends are expected to bolster Canada and Australia. Conversely, growth in countries like Indonesia and Pakistan may slow, with modest population reductions anticipated. At the same time, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are poised to rise in global population rankings. Elon Musk has been vocal about these trends, repeatedly warning of the dangers of population collapse. As the data shows, the world’s demographic landscape is undergoing seismic changes that may have far-reaching implications for generations to come.