Elon Musk vs Jeff Bezos: Which billionaire will lead the space race?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has transformed space exploration, making it seem easier than ever despite its well-known challenges like high costs, complexity, and risks. Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, has created a breakthrough with its reusable Falcon 9 rocket, which is now the world’s most frequently flown rocket. This innovation has helped significantly reduce the costs of space transportation. The company’s dominance is clear in the field of launching satellites into orbit, with its own Starlink satellites also benefiting from this capability. Today, about 6,000 Starlink satellites orbit the Earth, providing high-speed internet almost anywhere, showcasing the advantages of SpaceX's vertically integrated business model.

Recently, SpaceX performed a remarkable "chopsticks" maneuver to recover the Starship rocket booster, pointing to even cheaper launches in the future. While Musk’s competitors, like Jeff Bezos and China, are still far behind, Europe faces a particularly tough situation. Once a leader in satellite launches with the Ariane program, Europe has now lost its edge and even relies on SpaceX for satellite launches. Traditional satellite companies like Eutelsat and SES have struggled to keep up with Starlink and face challenges from outdated business models, such as broadcasting TV channels in the age of streaming services. The companies are restructuring, with Eutelsat and SES merging with rivals and Airbus planning up to 2,500 job cuts in defense and space sectors. According to a think tank, Ifri, a significant leap forward in Europe’s space ambitions is urgently needed.

Space is not just a technological race but also a geopolitical one. During the Cold War, space was a critical area of competition. Today, Starlink has proven valuable on the battlefield, especially in Ukraine, but has also raised concerns about its use by Russian forces. Musk has used Starlink as leverage, such as during an incident where Brazil was told it wouldn’t comply with a requirement to block access to Musk's social media platform X (it eventually did comply). Europe’s reliance on SpaceX in the $630 billion global space market poses risks, especially with Musk’s unpredictable behavior and the rise of China as a space power.

The European Union has ideas to catch up, with a report from Mario Draghi listing 10 proposals for boosting space competitiveness. These include promoting space startups and streamlining the EU's complex governance of space. There is also a plan for a new satellite constellation called IRIS² to drive investment, but the project has faced delays, and there are doubts about the political willpower needed as some EU countries tighten their budgets. Additionally, Europe lacks a reusable launcher and an integrated business model like Starlink.

To truly compete with Musk, Europe could focus on delivering low-cost internet connections from space. Offering affordable services, such as $50 per month compared to Starlink’s $100, could attract customers in remote areas. Economist Francesco Nicoli estimates that around $12 billion would be needed over seven years to create a “European Starlink,” with half going toward reusable launchers and the rest for satellite development. Although there may be resistance from existing telecom operators, bringing them on board could help avoid another missed opportunity for Europe in the space race. While the risks are significant, the dangers of staying stagnant are even greater.

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