China dominated this sector for a decade, India now set to take lead in..., reason is...

India is expected to take the lead in global oil demand growth over the next ten years, overtaking China, according to a new report by Moody's Ratings. For years, China has driven the world’s oil demand, but now the tide is turning. As China’s economy slows and its shift to electric vehicles gains pace, its demand for crude oil — used to make petrol and diesel — is expected to peak in the next 3–5 years. Meanwhile, India’s oil consumption is set to grow by 3–5% each year in the same period.

Both countries are among the world’s top oil consumers, but Moody’s sees India becoming the main engine for demand growth. This change is driven by India's fast-growing economy, urbanisation, and heavy investments in infrastructure, which are increasing the need for transport and energy.

While China is working to reduce its reliance on imported oil, India may have to depend more on imports, especially if domestic production doesn't improve. India already imports around 90% of its crude oil and 50% of its natural gas needs.

Moody’s highlighted that Indian oil companies face hurdles like aging oil fields and slower investment, whereas Chinese oil giants are stronger due to larger operations and better investment in areas like offshore drilling and shale gas. Chinese firms also manage price changes better and have lower debt levels.

In the refining space, India is planning to increase its capacity by 20% by 2030, while China’s refining capacity is already near its official limit. Indian oil companies like Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and Indian Oil are investing heavily to meet rising demand.

Natural gas demand is also growing in both countries. India aims to raise the share of gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030, up from 6% now. This cleaner fuel is becoming more common in Indian cities through piped and compressed natural gas.

However, challenges remain — especially in terms of building enough infrastructure and making gas affordable. Still, with stronger demand growth and continued investments, India is clearly stepping into a larger role in the global energy landscape.