Will Islamic nations join Pakistan in war against India? What will Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Iran do if...

What may Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey and Iran do if a war breaks out between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terrorist attack? Will they take the side of Islamabad in the name of Ummah (the global community of Muslims, united by their shared faith and devotion to Allah)? Or will the Muslim countries nurture their own economic and geopolitical benefits by maintaining an equidistance and limit their support to Pakistan to rhetoric? The bottom line remains that their response may vary and would be based on their national interests, alliances, and internal dynamics. 

If one looks at the wars already fought by the two countries, it is clear that Islam was not an important factor and the country, which was forked out of India in the name of Islam, did not get the support of Islamic countries. I

1947-48 War

The first India-Pakistan war that began on October 22, 1947, with Islamabad sending its troops to Kashmir in the garb of the Pashtun tribal fighters, did not consolidate the Islamic world in the name of religion. Barring some moral and diplomatic support from a few Muslim-majority states, nothing happened, and Pakistan received no military support from any country. 

1965 War

The war began on April 24, 1965, when the Pakistan Army attacked India in the Rann of Kutch. Besides expressing solidarity with Pakistan, Islamic nations like Iran and Turkey did nothing; their support was limited to diplomatic statements, without any military help.

(Pakistan Army General AAK Niazi signs instrument of surrender after 1971  Bangladesh Liberation War.)

1971 Bangladesh Liberation War

The war that gave birth to a new nation began on December 3, 1971, and ended with the liberation of Bangladesh on December 16, 1971. While Jordan sent fighter jets to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia kept itself limited to rhetoric. 

1999 Kargil Conflict

India and Pakistan fought the Kargil Conflict that began on May 3 and came to an end on July 26, 1999, when India allowed Pakistan to pull back its troops. Most Islamic nations urged dialogue and restraint and no one offered any assistance to Islamabad. 

Analysts believe the scenario will not change drastically if an India-Pakistan War breaks out now. 

Saudi Arabia

Riyadh has deep communal, economic and strategic cooperation with Islamabad, which has deployed its troops in Saudi Arabia and the kingdom has given loans of billions of dollars to Pakistan. However, Saudi Arabia has deeper and wider interests in India, where it plans to invest $100 billion to diversify its economy before the oil wells dry up. Riyadh may offer diplomatic assistance, offer to negotiate and back Islamabad in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. No military help is expected. 

United Arab Emirates

Abu Dhabi has already announced plans to invest billions of dollars in India to diversify its oil-based economy. It may try to de-escalate the tension between the two countries, without offering any assistance. 

Iran

Tehran has already shown its intention by sending Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Pakistan and India in an attempt to hold talks and de-escalate the tension. He is now in Islamabad and is most likely to arrive in India on Wednesday. It could offer rhetorical and diplomatic assistance to Islamabad. India is developing a seaport in Chabahar and has offered other projects. Though Iran has given the Railway and thermal power projects to China, it should not do anything that may jeopardise its interests in India. 

Turkey

Analysts suggest Ankara is helping Pakistan, intending to boost its position in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, or the OIC. The 57-member bloc is dominated by Saudi Arabia and Iran. Turkey wants to bolster its position by claiming that it has supported an Islamic nation. After the rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey moved towards radical Islam swiftly. The Turkish president now nurtures the ambition of becoming the head of the Umma or the Islamic World. The Pahalgam attack has given him this opportunity. 

(Pakistan Army officer with Turkish drone) 

A NATO member state, Turkey signed a $75 million deal to upgrade 41 of Pakistan's F-16 fighter jets. It also supplied advanced targeting pods for Pakistan’s JF-17 jets and an electronic warfare training range. Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar signed a deal with Pakistan’s National Aerospace Science and Technology Park in 2023 to jointly develop UAVs. Earlier in 2022, it supplied the battle-tested Bayraktar TB-2 drones to Pakistan. Turkey is most likely to back Pakistan and supply more military hardware. 

While the OIC may issue symbolic resolutions, collective action is highly unlikely. Historical precedents and current dynamics suggest that Pakistan would receive moral and diplomatic support, it will have to fight alone.