Election of vice president: BJP-led NDA or Congress-led INDIA, who may win?

As the office of the vice president of India has fallen vacant due to the resignation of Jagdeep Dhankhar, and the Election Commission of India has started the process of election, who will have the last laugh? The BJP-led NDA or the Congress-led INDIA bloc, which may get its candidate elected? Who has the edge in the election for the second-highest office and one of the most significant ones in the country? 

Electoral College

The ECI has announced that it will soon begin making preparations for the election. Article 66(1) of the Constitution of India says in clear terms that the election of the vice president shall be held by the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The electoral college for the vice president consists of the members of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, elected as well as nominated.

Vice Presidential Election: Number Game

The Lok Sabha has 543 seats. The seat of Bashirhat in the state of West Bengal is vacant. In the Rajya Sabha, there are 245 seats, but five are vacant- four from the state of Jammu and Kashmir and one from Punjab. So, the electoral college for the election of the vice president will have 542 plus 240, i.e., 782 seats. So, the magic majority number to win the election is 392. 

Who may cross the majority mark?

The BJP-led NDA has 293 seats in the Lok Sabha and 129 members in the Rajya Sabha. If all the members of the alliance are present and they vote for their candidate, he will get 422 votes. Thus, the NDA candidate may win hands down. On the other hand, the Congress-led INDIA bloc has 99 members in the Lok Sabha and 27 members in the Rajya Sabha. However, the INDIA bloc has the support of 350 members in the Parliament. 

What is proportional representation?

The vice president of India is elected by the system of proportional representation with the single transferable vote. The ballot papers are used in the election. The ballot paper contains two rows—one containing the names of the candidates and the other the preferences. Every elector can mark as many preferences as candidates are contesting the election. These preferences for the candidates are to be marked by the elector by placing the figures 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and so on against the names of candidates.
The candidates, in the order of preference. 

If no candidate secures the requisite quota after the first round of the counting, the counting proceeds on the basis of a process of elimination and exclusion. The candidate credited with the lowest number of votes is excluded, and all his ballot papers are distributed among the remaining candidates on the basis of the second preferences marked thereon.