Can there be India-Pakistan nuclear war? THREE situations when Islamabad can press nuclear button...

With the combined capacity of 342 warheads and sophisticated delivery systems in place, can there be an India-Pakistan nuclear war? May a failed state like Pakistan use the ultimate weapon as a last resort, with its back to the wall and destroy everything, including itself? As the army controls the entire Pakistani state, including the elected government, who will make the last decision? Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif or General Asim Muneer, who will press the so-called nuclear button?

Nuclear doctrines of India, Pakistan

These questions may appear hypothetical, imaginary, and far-fetched at present, but the possibility of their becoming true can not be ruled out. What makes the situation more dangerous is Pakistan's policy of "Full Spectrum Deterrence" doctrine, as opposed to the Indian doctrine of NFU, or "No First Use." Islamabad's policy emphasises the use of tactical nuclear weapons to counter India's conventional military superiority and does not rule out using nuclear weapons first. On the contrary, New Delhi has pledged to use nuclear weapons in retaliation and not to use it first. Though India indicated in 2019 that it might reconsider the NFU doctrine, experts believe New Delhi would show more maturity and responsibility. 

What is the Cold-start policy?

India has announced the Cold Start policy, meaning the war would be fought on a conventional basis with non-nuclear weapons. Contrary to this, Islamabad has declared to use nuclear weapons if its existence is at stake and its defeat in a conventional war is imminent. Explaining this policy and the possible nuclear attack, 'Friday Times' Editor Najam Sethi told Indian journalist Karan Thapar that if its existence is threatened in a conventional war, Pakistan may use nuclear bombs, and it should not be treated as a hollow threat or a schoolboy approach or rhetoric. 

When can Pakistan drop nuclear bomb?

Najam Sethi said that there are three points in Pakistan's nuclear policy. If a large swathe of Pakistani territory is captured, major rivers are diverted, or a siege is laid around Karachi port, Pakistan will stare at an existential threat and press the button. Knowing it well that it may invite retaliation from India, "Pakistan will destroy everything, including itself, and go to heaven".  

(Pakistan Army General AAK Niazi signing surrender document to Indian Army General Jagjit Singh Arora)

Will Pakistan press nuclear button?

These three conditions and the possibility of a nuclear war may be analysed. Because more than 93,000 Pakistani troops surrendered in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, and Islamabad has lost all wars and skirmishes, including the 1947-48 war, the 1965 war, the 1971 war, and the 1999 Kargil conflict, the possibility of losing a large tract of land in a conventional war can not be ruled out. India has already kept the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, and a long-term preparation for diverting the major rivers can not be ruled out. Similarly, considering the superiority of India's blue water navy, two aircraft carriers, and nuclear submarines, the siege of Karachi is not impossible. 

However, these are just war scenarios, not the real war. Experts believe soon the better sense may prevail and the two sides agree to de-escalate the tension. Talking exclusively to DNA, defence expert and war veteran Colonel Sanjeet Sirohi ruled out the possibility of a full-fledged war. He said that neither India nor Pakistan is prepared for a full-scale war at present. So, it can be concluded that an India-Pakistan nuclear war is a possibility, but the present crisis would be resolved much before turning it into a full-fledged war. So, there should be no nuclear war now.