WTC final scenarios: South Africa through; here’s what India, Australia need to do to book their ticket to Lord's

South Africa's thrilling two-wicket victory over Pakistan in Centurion has secured their spot in the World Test Championship (WTC) final in June. With only one spot remaining, two teams are vying for the coveted position. Let's delve into what India and Australia must accomplish to secure their place in the final.

India and Australia's WTC final scenarios:

In order for India to secure qualification, they must emerge victorious in both of their remaining Tests in Melbourne and Sydney. By doing so, they would finish with a total of 60.53 points, surpassing Australia's 57.02 points even if Australia were to win their upcoming two-Test series against Sri Lanka with a 2-0 scoreline. Sri Lanka's maximum points potential for this cycle is 53.85, a total they would achieve by sweeping Australia at home.

If India were to win one Test and draw the other, they would finish with 57.02 points. In this scenario, they could potentially lose the second spot to Australia, who would finish with 58.77 points if they were to win both Tests in Sri Lanka. For India to qualify with 57.02 points, Australia would need to earn no more than 16 points in Sri Lanka (a win and a draw).

A victory and a loss in Australia would result in India finishing with 55.26 points, requiring them to rely on Sri Lanka defeating Australia by at least a 1-0 margin.

If both Tests end in draws, India would finish with 53.51 points. Sri Lanka could surpass this total with a 2-0 win, while Australia would need at least one victory in Sri Lanka to exceed it.

In the event that India draws one Test and loses the other, they would finish with 51.75 points and be eliminated from contention. In this scenario, Australia would finish ahead of India even if they were to lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka.

On the other hand, in order for Australia to secure a spot in the World Test Championship final, they must emerge victorious in both the Melbourne and Sydney Tests against India. This would guarantee them a final score of 57.02, even if they were to suffer a 2-0 defeat in Sri Lanka.

A win and a draw against India would still place Australia ahead of India, even if they were to lose both Tests in Sri Lanka. However, a clean sweep by Sri Lanka could potentially surpass Australia in the standings.

If Australia were to win one Test and lose the other against India, they would need to secure at least one victory in Sri Lanka to maintain their lead. The same holds true if both Tests against India end in a draw.

In the scenario where Australia draws one Test and loses the other against India, they would be required to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to remain in contention.

Ultimately, if Australia were to suffer defeat in both Tests against India, they would be eliminated from the running for a spot in the World Test Championship final.

Also read| South Africa become first team to qualify for WTC 2025 final, beat Pakistan by 2 wickets in Centurion