How Biden’s Lame-Duck Period Could Influence Policy Decisions After Choosing Not to Run in 2024

Since President Joe Biden decided not to run in the 2024 election, he has been considered a “lame-duck” president—meaning his influence has been somewhat limited. With the election over and Donald J. Trump has been elected the next president, Biden no longer needs to be concerned about how his actions may affect Kamala Harris’s chances, as she is no longer in the race.

Could Biden use this extra flexibility in the coming months to make decisions that may have hurt Harris politically before Election Day?

Two Primary Areas of Focus

The president, for instance, could follow through on his warnings to Israel by reducing military aid if the humanitarian situation in Gaza does not get better. According to Clayton Allen, US director at the Eurasia Group, while such a decision is, indeed, possible, it is not probable as it would, possibly, face major political resistance within the US, reports GZERO Media.

Allen is suggesting that, since ‘Bibi’ (Benjamin Netanyahu) now knows Trump will be taking office in January, any attempts to make US support dependent on certain conditions will not be very effective. This is because Netanyahu may believe that Trump will provide support without imposing those conditions, making it easier for him to wait until the new Administration starts instead of agreeing to any requirements now.

Allen explains that Netanyahu expects things to improve for him in about two and a half months when Trump takes office. This makes it unlikely that he would change his approach in Gaza now, knowing that Trump could reverse any changes once he is in power.

Biden could choose not to block UN Security Council resolutions that aim to hold Israel responsible for its actions in Gaza. This means he could allow the UN to criticize, or take action against, Israel without using the US veto to stop it. Biden’s Administration has done something similar in the past. In March, it chose not to block a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire, which upset Netanyahu. However, these actions would mostly be symbolic and have little real impact on Netanyahu, who has already shown that he does not take the UN’s opinions on Israel’s decisions very seriously.

Another option could be for the US to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons against targets in Russia, something that has been restricted by the US until now. Allen says this is a “more likely change” than Biden making any big moves against Israel, pointing out that the Administration had already been thinking about this option even before Trump’s win.

Allen suggests that steps may be taken to establish a formal security commitment to Ukraine through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the yearly defence funding Bill. However, this would be possible only if enough support is garnered in Congress.

In the end, it is unlikely that major policy changes will happen during this transition period. Zelensky seemed to recognize this in his congratulatory tweet to Trump, where he expressed the hope to work together toward a “just peace” once Trump takes office. Trump has promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, but he has not explained how he plans to make this happen.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)