Can This Ceasefire Hold? Israel, Hezbollah, and the Uncertain Path Ahead

Israel has agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon and to end over a year of conflict with the Hezbollah militia. This move could also help ease a larger regional crisis that risked involving the US and other global powers. According to an announcement by US President Joe Biden on Tuesday, this is “good news from the Middle East”. He declared that a ceasefire was set to start at 4 am (local time) on Wednesday (November 27).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supported the agreement earlier, stating it would help Israel focus on the threat from Iran, give the Israeli military time to recover and resupply, and isolate Hamas. Netanyahu said the ceasefire would continue only if the situation in Lebanon remained stable. He emphasised that Israel would strictly enforce the agreement and take strong action against any violations to ensure that the ceasefire was upheld.

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed support for the agreement, stating that it would help bring peace and stability to Lebanon and allow its displaced people to return to their homes and communities. The Prime Minister’s Office of Israel announced that the national security Cabinet had officially approved the ceasefire, with 10 ministers voting in favour and one against. The statement also expressed Israel’s gratitude to the US for its role in the process and emphasised Israel’s right to respond to any security threats. National security minister Itamar Ben Gvir was the only member of the Cabinet to vote against the agreement.

Hezbollah had recently shown a willingness to agree to a deal. Hassan Fadlallah, a member of Parliament linked to the group, told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Tuesday that their main focus was on protecting Lebanon’s sovereignty and implementing national measures.

Day of Intense Attacks on Lebanon

The announcements followed a day of intense attacks on Beirut, with Israeli ground troops moving further into southern Lebanon. Shortly after President Biden’s statement, several explosions shook Beirut. At the same time, northern Israel faced a fresh wave of rocket attacks, showing the ongoing tension on both sides. The Israeli military announced that its troops had reached the Litani river, an important point in the conflict. Israel has called for Hezbollah to move its fighters further north, beyond the river, to reduce tensions and create a buffer zone.

Central Beirut was rocked by explosions as the Israeli military reported carrying out 20 airstrikes in just two minutes. The city was filled with the sounds of sirens, gunfire, explosions and the constant buzz of Israeli surveillance drones.

The Lebanese Health Ministry reported on Tuesday evening that Israeli airstrikes across the country had killed at least 19 people. The Israeli military stated that its airstrikes were targeting Hezbollah locations, including its cash reserves and branches of a bank under US sanctions linked to the group’s social services. Earlier, the military reported carrying out 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah continued to launch rockets into northern Israel on Tuesday night, targeting areas including Haifa, Israel’s third-largest city. Hezbollah has not yet made any public statement about the announced ceasefire.

Scope of the Ceasefire Agreement

If carried out, the agreement would be a significant diplomatic achievement for President Biden in the final months of his term. It follows over a year of efforts by the White House to prevent a larger regional conflict. This deal may also shape the challenges President-elect Donald Trump will face when he takes office in January.

The agreement would be a major step forward for Israel, which has spent over a year trying to convince the Iran-backed Hezbollah to drop its condition that a ceasefire in Lebanon could happen only after the fighting in Gaza ended. Until now, these conflicts seemed to be driving the Middle East closer to a larger war. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the region was now facing more limitations and a stronger push to reduce tensions.

Months of Efforts by US and France

The ceasefire agreement is the result of months of efforts by the US and France, which once ruled Lebanon and also worked to make the deal happen. President Biden thanked France in his speech on Tuesday. The agreement allows two months for the Israeli military to leave southern Lebanon and for the Lebanese security forces to take control of the area. The agreement also includes international monitoring of the ceasefire, with the involvement of the US and France. The agreement requires Hezbollah to pull its forces away from areas near the Israeli border, following a United Nations resolution that ended the 2006 war, according to Lebanese officials.

Hezbollah, which is also a political party, began attacking Israel a day after the Hamas-led assaults on October 7 last year, stating that it was in support of its Palestinian ally. Hezbollah’s attacks made life in northern Israel unbearable, forcing 60,000 Israelis to leave the area and leaving many civilians dead. In response, Israeli strikes have killed thousands in Lebanon and caused widespread destruction in the southern parts of the country.

The US spent over a year trying to secure a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The goal was to stop the fighting in Lebanon and bring stability to the region, but these efforts were not successful. The war led to direct clashes between Israel and Iran for the first time, including two major missile attacks on Israel and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

After a year of attacks and counter-attacks, Israel escalated its efforts in late-September. This included targeting, and killing, most of Hezbollah’s top leaders, destroying much of its missile arsenal and starting a ground offensive to eliminate militants and their infrastructure near the border. These attacks dealt Hezbollah its most severe blow in decades. Recently, the group agreed to negotiate a truce separate from the Gaza conflict, making the ceasefire possible.

According to a senior US official, this is a pivotal moment. If Hamas believes they have widespread support for their cause, they have, possibly, realized today that that is not true. The ceasefire comes at a time of instability in the region, as Israel continues its war in Gaza and deals with tensions with Iran. However, the agreement offers hope for reducing the conflict.

According to WSJ, Jon Alterman, a senior vice-president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former US State Department official, said this agreement showed Israel’s willingness to compromise. This is something many have hoped to see in Gaza for over a year, offering a sign of possible progress. It shows that Israel has secured lasting advantages over Hezbollah.

This truce will bring relief to millions in Lebanon, where many people have been forced to leave home across vast areas of the country. According to the Lebanese health ministry, over 3,700 people have died in Lebanon, most of them since Israel intensified its attacks on Hezbollah in September.

The war has added more pressure on Lebanon’s institutions, which were already struggling due to a severe economic crisis since 2019. Economists have called this crisis one of the worst in recent history, making the situation even more difficult for the country to handle.

Peace and stability in Israel could help tens of thousands of Israeli civilians return to their homes in the northern parts of the country. According to Israeli government estimates, Hezbollah has launched more than 16,500 rockets and missiles into Israel since the start of the conflict.

Number of Battle Zones Reduced

The cease-fire agreement reduces the number of active battle zones, allowing Israel to concentrate its troops and resources on the conflict in Gaza. Despite over a year of airstrikes and a ground invasion that has caused widespread destruction in Gaza, Hamas remains active and continues to resist.

After over a year of conflict, the ceasefire will provide Israeli soldiers with a much-needed break. The country is also dealing with a decrease in reservist soldiers showing up for duty. Israel has said its goal in Lebanon is to create a safe environment for its displaced citizens to return home.

Israeli soldiers searched towns and villages near the border, destroying Hezbollah’s military setups, such as tunnels, underground bunkers and hidden weapons storage sites. Israel claims these actions stopped Hezbollah’s plan to attack northern Israel. However, they also left parts of those towns heavily damaged. After completing their operations and significantly weakening Hezbollah, Israeli security officials and experts believe continuing the war will only benefit Hezbollah. They suggest prolonging the conflict may give the group time to recover and strengthen itself.

Eitan Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a former expert in national security strategy, explained that the military efforts had reached a point where continuing would no longer bring significant benefits. In simple terms, he meant further action would not improve the situation much and could even cause unnecessary harm or complications.

Some Israelis have criticized the ceasefire deal, arguing that it ended before fully defeating Hezbollah, especially when Israel had the advantage. They believe stopping the fighting will give Hezbollah a chance to recover and rebuild and they doubt the Lebanese military’s ability to enforce the terms of the agreement.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)