ANALYSIS
Bangladesh Army has declared that they are taking over the reins of the country with a promise to form an interim government.
Dhaka, the capital of our neighbour Bangladesh, has been burning ever since student protests started in the country in June this year. Initially, it was assumed that the sole reason for the protest was against the reservation to the families of those who fought in the 1971 Bangladesh Mukti Sangram. But later things turned ugly, and it became clearer that not only the protests were sponsored but also aimed to topple the existing Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina Wazed.
Soon after she fled from the country, large-scale arson was reported and violent elements entered the official prime minister’s residence in Dhaka and ransacked it. They burnt the house of the Home Minister of Bangladesh and also torched the national office of the ruling party – Awami League. Large-scale violence is also reported against minorities. Under such circumstances, we must understand the entire flow of events which are important from an Indian perspective. Let us discuss them.
How the Army staged the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. Bangladesh Army has declared that they are taking over the reins of the country with a promise to form an interim government, but the bigger question is how Army came into play and how they facilitated such a large-scale military takeover in our neighbourhood. Technically speaking, military coups in Bangladesh are not new. Bangladesh inherited it from Pakistan, under whose rule they remained until 1971. There were two back-to-back military coups in 1975. It attempted several successful or failed, large or localized bids to take over the government in 1977, 1981, 1982, 1996, 2007, 2009 and 2011. And the latest one is on 5th August 2024.
There were images of Sheikh Hasina’s resignation on social media, where she is signing her resignation while being flanked by two senior military officers. Soon after she was moved from Dhaka to India in a military plane. This image and the circumstances indicate that most probably she was forced to sign her resignation and move away from the country in trade to her life.
In the last three decades, radical elements of Bangladesh, Jamaat-e-Islami to be specific, have gained significant influence not only among the common public but also in the top leadership of military and bureaucracy. Sheikh Hasina was known to crack down on various Islamic radical groups, Hence, she was on the radar of these groups. The student protests when started in June 2024 were not so violent, but later in July, they turned red with the killing of several hundred protesters in police firing.
This was the time when the radical elements swung into action and influenced Army to take over the country. Every event seems to be fairly stage-managed. Right from the resignation of Sheikh Hasina to her escape into India. It clearly indicates that the Army would have proposed a deal to her -- stay here and get killed by the angry mob or run away from this country after submitting your resignation and save your life.
This becomes clear from three events. Firstly, Sheikh Hasina's military transport which she cannot use on her own unless permitted by Army chief. Secondly, the way she moved out moments before protesters stormed her official residence indicates that this theory is correct. Thirdly, the way the Army Chief kept on postponing his press release till she moved away and entered India raises suspicion. Further, the clear statement of Army Chief General Waqar-ul-Zaman about forming an interim government clarifies that it was all stage managed by the Bangladesh Army.
Who will form the power centre now – Although in the address of Army Chief he mentioned categorically that he will facilitate an interim government with the participation of all parties, the biggest question is that since there is widespread anger against Awami League and its chairperson Sheikh Hasina, will the interim government have any representation of them? The way people are burning the houses of leaders of this party, will they have any acceptance in the absence of their own leader Sheikh Hasina, who will be the person from the party to take calls? The possibility of Awami League being part of the interim government is almost negligible and under such circumstances, the only elements this so-called interim government will have will be its primary opposition party (Bangladesh National Party) and the ultra-radical Jamaat-e- Islami of Bangladesh.
It is pertinent to know that the primary pivot of the current protests was an organization called “Islamic Chhatr Shibir” the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamic radical group of Bangladesh which has been banned in the past for their radical attitude and violence against minorities. Under the circumstance of them taking over the reins of the country, radicalism will grow manifold in Bangladesh and there are high possibility that it may turn into violent terrorism against the minorities. Since India has a porous border with Bangladesh, there are chances of a serious fallout for India too.
The developments in Bangladesh have put the entire South Asia under extreme pressure. Both of the eastern neighbours of India are having serious troubles. Myanmar was already under spin since the rebel groups have taken over a significant part of the country and now Bangladesh where extremist elements have taken over the streets. Bangladesh has a significant role in the Southeast Asian economy and these aspects are bound to suffer since political instability gives rise to economic instability too. At the same time, radical elements may pose a challenge to India which is the only nearest neighbor to Bangladesh. India being the second largest trade partner of Bangladesh will have its own fallouts.
Bangladesh's developments are changing rapidly and at this point of time, it is extremely difficult to say where the tides will turn. Although we are sure that the Indian government and our intelligence agencies will try their best to contain the situation, the challenge remains at large and only time has the answer.
(The author is a veteran of the Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security)
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)
India caught in crosswinds of US aerospace tariffs
IPL trivia: When Preity Zinta, Sandeep Sharma roasted Glenn Maxwell in dressing room | Watch video
100 best food cities in the world 2024-25: 6 Indian cities feature on list; THIS one is in Top 10
MS Dhoni to return as CSK captain in IPL 2025? Reports claim...
Bank Holiday today: Are banks open or closed on April 5, 2025? Here's all you need to know
Taj Mahal earned over Rs 98 crore through ticket sales in FY24, Qutub Minar, Red Fort earned Rs...
Chaitra Navratri Ashtami 2025: Top 10 wishes, shubh muhurat, vidhi for kanya puja and more
Man in Karnataka serves 1.5 years in jail for 'murdering' wife, she turns up alive in court
OpenAI's ChatGPT can now create fake Aadhaar and PAN cards: Will cybercrimes increase due to it?
Mukesh Ambani takes BIG step as Reliance Jio’s free JioHotstar subscription is available until...
'We do not want TikTok to go dark': Donald Trump extends deadline by 75 days
Kareena Kapoor Khan reveals her fitness and beauty secrets: 'works on my own rather....'
‘Omg she is just so smooth’: Mom-daughter duo’s dance to ‘Ramta Jogi’ takes internet by storm
Punjab constable arrested with 17.7 gms of heroin in Bathinda, dismissed from service
DNA TV Show: Kolkata's Circus Chauraha turned into 'Shaheen Bagh' over Waqf Bill protest?
LSG vs MI: Hardik Pandya creates history, becomes 1st captain in IPL to take five-wicket haul
Earthquake of magnitude 5.0 jolts Nepal, tremors felt in North India
'Co-star got excited during intimate scene, felt violated', Know in details actress and incident
'AI enthusiast job seeker writes his own OBITUARY on LinkedIn, then THIS happened...
Yunus-Modi Talks: Sheikh Hasina extradition raised as PM issues stark warning
Can BIMSTEC replace SAARC? Can India isolate Pakistan in Southeast Asia after Yunus-Modi Talks?
Digital Marketing Certification Worth It? Benefits, Career Impact, and Salary Trends in 2025
Meet Rajkot artisan, crafts 75-meter-long turban for PM Modi that weighs 25 kg, worth Rs...
Kazakhstan unearths massive rare Earth deposit of 1000000 tonnes, eyes global...
China hits back at US with additional 34 per cent tariff on American goods as trade war intensifies
What happens if you eat curd every day after lunch? Here's how your body responds
PM Modi's FIRST meeting with Muhammad Yunus after Hasina's extradition: 'There were talks on...'
Lion inside house in Gujarat leaves residents shellshocked! WATCH viral video
How your skin can reveal secrets about your dating life
'Uber for Teens' launched In India: Who is eligible; here's how to book a ride
Sunil Narine creates history, becomes first player in world to reach this milestone
India’s Digital Sovereignty: Navigating geopolitics and market realities
UP man, dancing on stage with wife on 25th wedding anniversary, collapses and dies; doctors said...
Will iPhones get costlier after Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs? Report claims...
When Manoj Kumar got angry on Farah Khan, Shah Rukh Khan for Om Shanti Om joke