Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: Who is ahead in the race of US Presidential Election 2024?

Voters in the United States are gearing up for a crucial election on November 5, where they will choose the next president. This election has taken an unexpected turn, as President Joe Biden ended his campaign in July and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. The central question now is whether America will make history by electing its first female president or allow Donald Trump to secure a second term.

Harris’s Strong Start
Since Kamala Harris officially entered the race at the end of July, she has consistently led Donald Trump in national polling averages. After a significant televised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, which attracted over 67 million viewers, her lead increased. Initially, Harris was ahead of Trump by 2.5 percentage points on the debate day, but this advantage grew to 3.3 points within a week. This boost in her polling was partly due to Trump’s performance, which saw his average drop by half a percentage point.

While these national polls offer a snapshot of candidate popularity, they may not fully reflect the final election outcomes due to the U.S. electoral college system. In this system, a total of 538 electoral votes are available, and candidates need at least 270 votes to win. Each state has a number of electoral votes based on its population, but most states tend to favor one party, meaning that only a few key battleground states can determine the election's outcome.

The Importance of Battleground States
Recent polling shows a highly competitive race in seven battleground states, with only a slim margin of one or two percentage points separating Harris from Trump. Pennsylvania is especially critical, as it holds the highest number of electoral votes among these states. On the day Biden stepped back from the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in these key battlegrounds.

Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris’s polling position has notably improved. She has been leading in important states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since early August. These states were once strongholds for the Democratic Party but flipped to Trump in the 2016 election. Biden managed to reclaim them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she could secure the presidency.

Analyzing Poll Data
The polling information comes from 538, a reputable polling analysis website affiliated with ABC News. This site compiles data from various polls conducted at both national and state levels by different polling organizations. To ensure reliable results, 538 includes only polls from firms that meet certain standards for transparency regarding their sample sizes and methodologies.

Challenges Ahead
As the election day approaches, the tight race in swing states complicates predictions. Historical data indicates that polls underestimated Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling companies are actively working to refine their methods to better reflect the voting population's demographics. Nevertheless, accurately predicting voter turnout for November 5 remains a significant challenge.

In conclusion, the upcoming election is shaping up to be an intense contest. As Harris and Trump enter the final phases of their campaigns, both voters and analysts will be closely monitoring changes in polling data and the dynamics in battleground states. Every vote will be crucial in this tightly contested race, making the next few weeks pivotal for both candidates.

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