Calculated Risk: Exploring Iran's motives behind alleged Donald Trump assassination plot

The Justice Department announced on Friday (8th November) that three men have been accused of planning to assassinate Donald Trump, allegedly under instructions from the Iranian government.

FBI Director Christopher Wray stated on Friday that the charges revealed Iran's ongoing bold attempts to go after U.S. citizens. This includes targeting President-elect Donald Trump, other government officials, and individuals who openly criticize the Tehran regime.

The murder-for-hire plot came to light when investigators spoke with an Afghan man believed to work for the Iranian government. He revealed that someone in Iran's Revolutionary Guard had directed him to come up with a plan to monitor and eventually assassinate Trump.

The plot was revealed just days after Trump won this week’s presidential election. It’s said to be part of broader Iranian efforts to target U.S. government officials within the United States.

Two of the three men have been taken into custody, but one of them, Farhad Shakeri, is still on the run and is thought to be in Iran.

Why might Iran want to target Trump? During Trump’s first term as president, tensions between the U.S. and Iran nearly led to war. This happened after Trump ordered an attack that killed Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general. He also pulled the U.S. out of the Iranian nuclear agreement and reinstated economic sanctions on Iran.

The Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was an agreement between Iran and major world powers. Signed in 2015, it aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. The goal was to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons while allowing peaceful nuclear activities.

In 2018, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA), arguing it was flawed and did not effectively prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. He also reimposed strict economic sanctions on Iran, aiming to pressure the country into renegotiating the deal and curbing its nuclear activities.

Iran likely feared Trump’s return to the presidency, as he was expected to push a renewed 'maximum pressure' approach against them. Trump was also expected to support Israel in intensifying its actions against Iranian-backed groups.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)