Has Pakistan Army chief become liability? Does Asim Muneer want limited war with India to unite country?

Does Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Muneer want a limited, short-lived war or armed skirmishes with India after being massively embarrassed in the restive province of Balochistan? Does he act as a rogue element in the Pakistan establishment against the wishes of the civilian government under Shahbaz Sharif? Or does Asim Muneer want to unite the people with a false narrative of a "country in danger" at a time when the Islamic nation is going through a phase of political instability and economic disaster? 

Will Asim Muneer drag India into limited war?

Considering the army-civilian government relationships, Asim Muneer's clout in the establishment, his anti-India rhetoric and his recent comments on Kashmir and Hindu-Muslim relations, the possibility of him trying to drag India into a short war can not be denied. The latest trigger is the embarrassment in the southwestern region where the militants of the Balochistan Liberation Army hijacked an entire train with more than 450 passengers, including many security personnel, on board. Though all militants were killed, the BLA claimed that more than 200 personnel from various security agencies died. A furious Army Chief took on the government and asked how many and how long his soldiers would continue to die. 

Has Pakistan been isolated?

Pakistan has already come under scathing attacks from international human rights bodies and governments, particularly from the US and the European nations for the Army's brutal crackdown on the Baloch people. Even Islamic countries like Iran have slammed Pakistan for human rights abuses, alleged extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances of the people in Balochistan. Human rights activist Mehrang Baloch has emerged as a voice of dissent in the region, and she is still languishing in jail. It is believed that most of the people in Pakistan do not want the Baloch issue to be addressed this way.

Pakistan Army's ploy to boost morale of troops?

Analysts believe that smarting under the humiliation, Asim Muneer decided to boost the morale of his troops by planning a daring terrorist attack in India. His provocative comments at the conclave of overseas Pakistanis betray his frustration and indicate his perfect planning. His remarks on the Hindu-Muslim relationship were so offensive and aggressive that many scholars, commentators and civil society members in his own country slammed him, reminding him that lakhs of Hindus live in Pakistan and they are as patriotic and responsible citizens as their Muslim brethren. 

Has Asim Muneer become liability?

Though the government has denied any role of Pakistan in the Pahalgam attack, the timing and the modus operandi of the terrorists prove Munir's point. If media reports are to be believed, the Pakistan Army chief has become a liability for the government for his inflammatory rhetoric, alleged support for proxy warfare, and authoritarian governance. Reports also suggest that the civilian government is upset that Pakistan has been isolated internationally due to its approach.

Is Pakistan staring at economic disaster?

India-Pakistan tension over the Pahalgam terrorist attack has spiraled at a time when the country is going through a dire economic situation with people demanding basic commodities like atta and riots have erupted in certain parts of the country over these things. It can be understood that Pakistan's nominal GDP in 2023 was $337.91 billion, while the real GDP at constant prices reached $400.066 billion. It recorded the GDP per capita at $1,616. Its projected GDP in 2025 is $373.08 billion at current prices, with a per capita GDP of $1,580.

Besides, the foreign currency reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan stood at $11.098 billion on March 7, a fall of $152 million from $11.250 billion on February 28. According to the Circular Economy Indicators Coalition, Pakistan's foreign debts stood at $131.1 billion in December 2024. 

Can IMF, China, Turkey bail Pakistan out?

Pakistan is trying its best to get a loan of $5 billion from the International Monetary Fund. The international body gave it an advance of just $1 billion, it is reluctant to give more loans, though it has not yet denied. Islamabad's all-weather friend China was kind enough to postpone the repayment of more than $30 billion under the Belt and Road Initiative. Pakistan's other friend Turkey too is not interested in giving loans or making investments there, rather, it has announced to invest $100 billion in India. 

Pakistan's government wants to address the economic issue and resolve the political impasse created over the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. It announced a few months back its intention to hold bilateral talks with India and boost economic ties by lifting the curbs it imposed in 2019 after the abrogation of Article 370. If media reports are to be believed, the Pakistan Army too was on board at that time. However, the Balochistan train hijack episode triggered a new crisis. 

Political observers believe Asim Muneer wants a short-lived war or aerial skirmishes similar to what took place in 2019 after the Pulwama attack. He wants to deflect the attention of the masses. At the same time, he also wants to emerge as a hero who takes on India. This may bolster his position as the Army Chief and boost his image.