Has Bangladesh moved to China? How can India safeguard its interests?

Amid increasing bonhomie with China and Pakistan, will India reach out to Bangladesh to woo it back into its fold?

Will India begin talking to anti-Sheikh Hasina forces in Bangladesh in the changed ground realities?

Will India put pressure on Bangladesh interim government chief adviser Muhammad Yunus to hold General Elections soon and allow Awami-League to participate in them?

Will India gracefully accept the outcome of the General Elections and cooperate with whichever party comes to power in Dhaka?

Will India woo Bangladesh back?

These questions have upset the political analysts and diplomats who keep an eye on the political situation in the neighbouring country which has completely changed after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024.

Bangladesh has been seen as a success story for India from a diplomatic point of view with Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League in power, keeping anti-India forces at bay. 

Hasina also did not succumb to Chinese pressure, though she maintained equidistance from Beijing and New Delhi. 

Bangladesh did not allow the US to make its naval base in St. Martin island, situated just 8 kilometres away from Myanmar.

Paradigm shift in Bangladesh politics

However, a paradigm shift was noticed after Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee the country following a popular student movement. 

With Muhammad Yunus at the helm of the affairs and radical Islamist forces spreading in the country, anti-India sentiments are at their highest point. Bangladesh is coming closer not only to China,  also Pakistan, the country it fought a bloody war to achieve independence. 

Before Muhammad Yunus began a four-day trip to China on Wednesday, a delegation of Bangladeshi politicians, businessmen, and civil society members visited China, where they spent ten days. 

Earlier, a ship containing goods from Pakistan arrived in Bangladesh, formally launching formal and direct trade, for the first time since 1971, when Dhaka fought a war to get freedom from that country. 

Will PM Narendra Modi meet Muhammad Yunus in Thailand?

However, analysts believe, the Ministry of External Affairs mandarins in New Delhi are confused, failing to understand what to do to stop Bangladesh from drifting away from India. 

Amidst these developments, an incident happened that may have far-reaching consequences for both countries. 

Bangladesh approached India for a closed-door meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Muhammad Yunus in Thailand where the two leaders will attend BIMSTEC Summit in April. 

New Delhi has not yet confirmed the meeting. 

Earlier last year, Yunus wanted to meet Modi in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting. The meeting did not take place. It was seen as a major snub to Dhaka. 

Bangladesh sets alarm bell ringing for India

Political observers believe, India should accept the ground realities and admit that Bangladesh is a changed country now and it must deal with it in the changed circumstances. 

Analysts believe, New Delhi must talk to Dhaka and extend cooperation to whatever party or person is in the government to stop it drifting to China and Pakistan. 

Muhammad Yunus' visit to China must have set the alarm bell ringing. India must come out and woo Dhaka now.