Flames on two fronts: Is China fueling war for India via Bangladesh and Maldives?

A retired Bangladeshi military officer has stirred controversy with a bold and alarming statement. Major General (Retd) ALM Fazlur Rahman recently suggested that if India launches a military strike on Pakistan over the deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam—which killed 26 people—then Bangladesh should invade and take control of India’s seven northeastern states. He even proposed that Bangladesh should join hands with China to make this plan possible. Rahman, who once headed the Bangladesh Rifles (now Border Guard Bangladesh) and is said to be close to Bangladesh’s current chief advisor Muhammad Yunus, shared this provocative idea in Bengali on Facebook. He wrote, “If India attacks Pakistan, Bangladesh will have to occupy seven states of northeast India. For this, we should start talks with China for a joint military plan.”

This statement comes at a sensitive time. India and Bangladesh are trying to improve their strained relationship, especially after former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina took asylum in India. India has also expressed concern about reports of attacks on Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. Tensions escalated further when Bangladesh’s chief advisor Muhammad Yunus, during a visit to China in March, made controversial comments about India’s northeastern states. He referred to them as the “Seven Sisters,” calling them landlocked and claiming they have no access to the sea. He then described Bangladesh as the “only guardian of the ocean” in the region—hinting at an opportunity for China’s growing economy. These remarks upset many leaders in India’s ruling party, the BJP. In response, India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, pointed out that India’s Northeast is becoming a key hub for regional trade and connectivity through BIMSTEC, with major investments in roads, railways, and waterways.

(Muhammad Yunus with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand)

The situation worsened when India recently ended a five-year agreement that had allowed Bangladeshi export cargo to move through Indian ports and airports. The decision, India said, was due to congestion and high traffic. Meanwhile, China continues to send weapons, warships, and ammunition to both Bangladesh and the Maldives. This has raised serious questions: Why is China arming these two Muslim-majority countries? What is its strategy? And how could it use these alliances if conflict breaks out between India and Pakistan?

What is BIMSTEC?

BIMSTEC stands for the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation. It’s a group of seven countries—India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal, and Bhutan—that work together to boost trade, connectivity, and development in the Bay of Bengal region. Formed in 1997, BIMSTEC aims to improve economic growth, strengthen cooperation in areas like transport and energy, and fight terrorism together. For India, it is also a way to better connect its northeastern states with the Bay of Bengal and reduce China’s growing influence.

What Are seven sister states?

The “Seven Sisters” is a term used to describe the seven northeastern states of India. They are called the Seven Sisters because they are geographically close, culturally similar, and depend on each other for trade and development. The term was coined in 1972 by journalist Jyoti Prasad Saikia from Tripura during a radio talk show. He later wrote a book on the subject. These states are connected to the rest of India through a narrow piece of land called the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the “Chicken’s Neck.” Sikkim is another northeastern state nearby, but since it’s separated by this corridor, it is sometimes referred to as the Seven Sisters’ “brother.”

Why Is China Arming Bangladesh, Maldives?

China has been supplying weapons to both Bangladesh and the Maldives for several years. Bangladesh has received submarines, warships, anti-ship missiles, and small arms—over 80% of its weapons now come from China. The Maldives, though smaller, has received patrol boats and maritime surveillance equipment. China is even exploring the possibility of creating a naval base in the Maldives.

(Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping)

But why is China doing this?

Expanding Influence: China wants to dominate the Indian Ocean region, where India has traditionally held power. Giving weapons and loans to Bangladesh and the Maldives helps China gain influence. Creating Economic Dependence: China has funded large infrastructure projects in both countries as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. These projects often come with heavy loans, making it difficult for the countries to refuse China’s demands. Strategic Geography: Bangladesh is close to India’s sensitive Northeast, while the Maldives lies near crucial shipping lanes. Gaining influence here lets China challenge India’s regional strength.

China’s Strategy: Debt and Dependence

China’s plan is simple but smart—offer big loans and weapons to make these countries dependent. In Bangladesh, China built the Padma Bridge and power plants, but these came with high-interest loans. Bangladesh now owes China billions of dollars, giving China a powerful say in its decisions.

In the Maldives, China built the Sinamalé Bridge and other infrastructure. The country now has such high debt that it struggles to make independent choices. The military equipment given to both countries relies on Chinese parts and training, locking them into long-term dependency.  This means China can indirectly push these countries to act in its interest—even if it hurts their neighbours like India.

How could China use Bangladesh, Maldives against India?

If war breaks out between India and Pakistan, China may not fight India directly. Instead, it might use Bangladesh and the Maldives to cause problems for India. Bangladesh: Rahman’s remarks show that some in Bangladesh might support China’s goals. With Chinese weapons, Bangladesh could stir unrest in India’s Northeast or try to disrupt the Siliguri Corridor, cutting off access to the Seven Sisters. This would make it hard for India to send soldiers or supplies to its northeastern region.

(Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Maldivian President Mohmad Muizzu) 

Maldives: The Maldives could allow Chinese naval ships or submarines to dock in its ports. This would force India to divide its naval resources—watching both Pakistan in the west and China in the south. Even though Bangladesh and the Maldives are smaller countries, their role could distract India and stretch its military focus.

India’s Challenges, How It’s Responding

India faces a tricky situation. The Seven Sisters are far from mainland India, and the narrow Siliguri Corridor is a vulnerable spot. Rahman’s and Yunus’s comments hint that Bangladesh may be leaning toward China. The Maldives, too, under a pro-China government, seems to be drifting away from India.

To deal with this, India is taking several steps: Boosting BIMSTEC: India is using this regional platform to connect the Northeast with other friendly countries, reducing reliance on Bangladesh. Investing in the Northeast: India is building new roads, railways, and ports to turn the region into a trade hub. Strengthening Maldives ties: India is offering more help through education, tourism, and aid programs to regain lost ground.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)