WTC final scenario: How can India still qualify for World Test Championship final after defeat at Adelaide Oval

India's hopes of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) final in 2025 took a significant hit following a crushing 10-wicket defeat at the hands of Australia in the day-night second Test of the ongoing Border Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) on Sunday. This loss has seen India drop to third place in the updated WTC points table, with Australia reclaiming the top spot and South Africa now in second place.

Prior to the series, India was in second place in the table after suffering a 0-3 whitewash against New Zealand at home. However, they managed to regain the top spot with a convincing 295-run victory over Australia in Perth.

Following the defeat in Adelaide, India's point percentage has fallen from 61.11 to 57.29, while Australia now leads with a 60.71 PCT. With three more Tests remaining in the series, it is crucial for India to regroup and perform well in the upcoming matches in order to secure their spot in the WTC final for the third consecutive time.

South Africa, currently positioned between Australia and India with a winning percentage of 59.26, have the opportunity to surpass the top-ranked teams by defeating Sri Lanka in the upcoming second Test in Gqeberha.

How can India qualify for WTC 2023-25 final?

If India were to win 4-1, with only three matches left, it is crucial for them to maintain their winning streak. In order to secure a spot in the WTC final 2025 without relying on other teams, India must secure three wins to accumulate 146 points, resulting in a PCT of 64.05. This would make it impossible for Australia to catch up.

In the event of a 3-2 victory for India, if Australia were to win one match and India two, India would finish with 134 points and a PCT of 58.77. Even if Australia were to win both Tests against Sri Lanka, they would only reach a maximum of 126 points with a PCT of 55.26. On the other hand, South Africa could potentially reach a PCT of 69.44 if they win their upcoming matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

A 3-1 win for India would see them accumulate 138 points and a PCT of 60.52 with two wins and a draw. Even if Australia were to win their matches against Sri Lanka, they would fall short with a PCT of 57 and eliminate themselves from the competition.

If India were to draw 2-2, a loss, a draw, and a win in the final three Tests would result in India finishing with 126 points and a PCT of 57.01. In this scenario, Australia would move ahead with 130 points, knocking India out of the running.

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